{"id":4531,"date":"2025-12-02T15:51:17","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T07:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/?p=4531"},"modified":"2025-12-02T16:26:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T08:26:52","slug":"%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e6%9c%80%e5%bc%ba%e5%8a%b2%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%8a%e6%b6%a8%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5%e6%89%8d%e5%88%9a%e5%88%9a%e5%bc%80%e5%a7%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/?p=4531","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6700\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u9636\u6bb5\u624d\u521a\u521a\u5f00\u59cb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u6709\u5206\u6790\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6b63\u8fdb\u5165\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u5e74\u5747\u590d\u5408\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff08CAGR\uff09\u9ad8\u8fbe 42.5%\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u7684 16% \u4ee5\u53ca\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684 10.65%\uff08\u82e5\u8003\u8651\u4f9b\u5e94\u56e0\u7d20\u5219\u4e3a 12.88%\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb 16 \u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u7cbe\u51c6\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\u7684 \u201c\u5e42\u5f8b\u6a21\u578b\u201d \u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u5c06\u5728 2030 \u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u9010\u6e10\u964d\u81f3\u7ea6 30%\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u662f\u9ec4\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u7684 3 \u500d\u3002\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u989d\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u300aOne Big Beautiful Bill\u300b\u540e\u5df2\u7a81\u7834 37 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6108\u53d1\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5b89\u5168\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u5bf9\u51b2\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\uff08\u672c\u6587\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhi\u1ec1u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng Bitcoin \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/strong> m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1edbi nay. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u <\/strong>10 n\u0103m qua cho th\u1ea5y<\/strong> t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (CAGR) \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi 42.5%, cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi Nasdaq (16%) v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng (10,65%, ho\u1eb7c 12,88% n\u1ebfu t\u00ednh c\u1ea3 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ngu\u1ed3n cung<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh power-law, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 theo d\u00f5i<\/mark> di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1<\/strong> Bitcoin trong su\u1ed1t<\/strong> 16 n\u0103m v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao<\/strong>, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/strong> t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng <\/strong>kho\u1ea3ng 30% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u <\/strong>bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi t\u1ed5ng n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng<\/strong> c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t 37 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD sau khi th\u00f4ng qua \u0111\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill\u201d, Bitcoin ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong> xem nh\u01b0<\/mark><\/strong> m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/strong>, m\u1edf ra ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng <\/strong>tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1edbi<\/strong>. (B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean <\/strong>\u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0)

t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/strong> \u589e\u957f
S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u <\/strong>\u6570\u636e
cho th\u1ea5y<\/strong> \u663e\u793a\/\u8868\u660e
k\u00e9p <\/strong>\u590d\u5408\uff08\u6307\u590d\u5408\u589e\u957f\uff09
y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/strong> \u56e0\u7d20

ngu\u1ed3n cung<\/strong> \u4f9b\u7ed9 \/ \u4f9b\u5e94
M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh<\/strong> \u6a21\u578b
power-law<\/strong> \u5e42\u5f8b\u6a21\u578b\uff08Power-Law Model\uff09
v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3<\/strong> \u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u6765\u90fd
theo d\u00f5i<\/strong> \u8ddf\u8e2a

di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1<\/strong> \u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf
trong su\u1ed1t<\/strong> \u6574\u6574
\u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao<\/strong> \u9ad8\u7cbe\u5ea6
d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/strong> \u9884\u6d4b
gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng <\/strong> \u964d\u4f4e

kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4<\/strong> \u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e
to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u <\/strong>\u5168\u7403
t\u1ed5ng n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng<\/strong> \u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1\u603b\u989d
\u0111\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt<\/strong> \u6cd5\u6848
gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong> \u6295\u8d44\u5708

xem nh\u01b0<\/strong> \u89c6\u4e3a
tr\u00fa \u1ea9n<\/strong> \u96b1\u853d; \u9632\u907f; \u96b1\u85cf
c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5<\/strong> \u5de5\u5177
ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba<\/strong> \u5bf9\u51b2 \/ \u9632\u8303
l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/strong>\uff1a\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0

m\u1edf ra<\/strong> \u5f00\u542f
ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/strong> \u6f5c\u529b
b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng<\/strong> \u53ef\u6301\u7eed
th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1edbi<\/strong> \u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74

l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean<\/strong> \u7bb4\u8a00 — \u52f8\u6212\u7684\u8a71<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6709\u5206\u6790\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6b63\u8fdb\u5165\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u5e74\u5747\u590d\u5408\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff08CAGR\uff09\u9ad8\u8fbe 42.5%\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u7684 16% \u4ee5\u53ca\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684 10.65%\uff08\u82e5\u8003\u8651\u4f9b\u5e94\u56e0\u7d20\u5219\u4e3a 12.88%\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb 16 \u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u7cbe\u51c6\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\u7684 \u201c\u5e42\u5f8b\u6a21\u578b\u201d \u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u5c06\u5728 2030 \u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u9010\u6e10\u964d\u81f3\u7ea6 30%\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u662f\u9ec4\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u7684 3 \u500d\u3002\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u989d\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u300aOne Big Beautiful Bill\u300b\u540e\u5df2\u7a81\u7834 37 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6108\u53d1\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5b89\u5168\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u5bf9\u51b2\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\uff08\u672c\u6587\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\uff09 Nhi\u1ec1u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng Bitcoin \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1edbi nay. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u 10 n\u0103m qua cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (CAGR) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[44,15,18],"class_list":["post-4531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-vietnamese","tag-doan-van","tag-tieng-viet","tag-18"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4531"}],"version-history":[{"count":29,"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4569,"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4531\/revisions\/4569"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rainyjames.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}